The Journal of

Investigating Global and Regional Trends of DALY due to Cardiovascular Diseases Using Latent Growth Model
 
Ahmad Heidari Behnouieh (M.Sc.)¹, Hossein Fallahzadeh (Ph.D.)², Ramin Malboosbaf(M.D.)³,                                  Sara Jambarsang(Ph.D.)⁴
 
1.M.Sc. of  Biostatistics, Center for Healthcare Data Modeling, School of Public Health, Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences, Yazd, Iran.
2.Professor of Biostatistics, Center for Healthcare Data Modeling, School of Public Health, Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences, Yazd, Iran.
3.Assistant Professor, Endocrine Research Center, Institute of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Iran University of Medical science, Tehran, Iran.
4.Corresponding Author: Assistant Professor, Center for Healthcare Data Modeling, School of Public Health Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences. Email:s.jambarsang@yahoo.com           Tel:09171091304
 
Abstract
Introduction: The global trend of cardiovascular diseases is increasing. This study was conducted to investigate the global and regional trends of DALY due to cardiovascular diseases during 1990-2017.
Methods: In this modeling study, the global burden rate of diseases, injuries, and risk factors by years of disability, years of life with disability, and years of life lost due to premature death related to cardiovascular diseases during 1990 to 2017 in 195 countries as the study population, which was extracted from the IHME site.
Results: The growth rate of DALY due to cardiovascular diseases in the high-income region (growth rate coefficient = 450.85) was higher than other regions and the highest mean DALY rate due to cardiovascular diseases was for Central and Eastern Europe and Central Asia (mean rate = 106767) compared to other regions. Overall, the growth rate of DALY due to cardiovascular diseases in the regions of Latin America and the Caribbean, South Asia and Southeast Asia, East Asia and Oceania was positive and the growth rate of DALY due to cardiovascular diseases was negative in Central Europe, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, high-income countries, North Africa and the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa.
Conclusion: The positive and negative trends observed in different economic regions indicate the need for planning to prevent cardiovascular diseases in lower income areas.
 
Keywords: Cardiovascular Disease, Latent Growth Model, Global Burden of Disease, Disability
Conflict of interest: The authors declared that there is no Conflict interest.
 1-Jamison DT, Mosley WH. Disease control priorities in developing countries: health policy responses to epidemiological change. American journal of public health.1991;81(1):15-22.
2-Murray CJ, Lopez AD, World Health Organization. The global burden of disease: a comprehensive assessment of mortality and disability from diseases, injuries, and risk factors in 1990 and projected to 2020: summary. World Health Organization.1996; 6-20.
3-WHO: Health situation and trend assessment. http://www.searo. Who .int/ entity/ health_ situation_ trends/data/ncd_ncd-deaths/en/. Accessed on 3/11/2019.
4-Safiri S, Kolahi AA, Cross M, et al. Prevalence, Deaths, and Disability‐Adjusted Life Years Due to Musculoskeletal Disorders for 195 Countries and Territories 1990–2017. Arthritis & Rheumatology.2021;73(4):702-14.[Persian]
5-Jagannathan R, Patel SA, Ali MK, Narayan  KV. Global updates on cardiovascular disease mortality trends and attribution of traditional risk factors. Current diabetes reports.2019;19(7):1-2.
 6-Berenson GS, Srinivasan SR, Bao W, Newman WP, Tracy RE, Wattigney WA. Association between multiple cardiovascular risk factors and atherosclerosis in children and young adults. New England journal of medicine.1998;338(23):1650-6.
7-World Health Organization [homepage on the Internet] 1.[cited February 2018]. Available from: http:// http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs/en/.
8- Forouzanfar  MH, Sepanlou SG, Shahraz S, et al. Evaluating causes of death and morbidity in Iran, global burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors study 2010. Archives of Iranian medicine. 2014 1;17(5):0-.[Persian]
9-Aghamohammadi S, Kazemi E, Khosravi A, Kazemeini H. The trend of ten leading causes of death in the Islamic Republic of Iran, 2006-2011. Iranian Journal of Epidemiology.2017;12(4):1-1.[Persian]
10-Moran AE, Forouzanfar MH, Roth GA, Mensah GA, Ezzati M, Flaxman A, Murray CJ, Naghavi M. The global burden of ischemic heart disease in 1990 and 2010: the Global Burden of Disease 2010 study. Circulation.2014;129(14):1493-501.
11- Rajaratnam JK, Marcus JR, Flaxman AD, et al. Neonatal, postneonatal, childhood, and under-5 mortality for 187 countries, 1970–2010: a systematic analysis of progress towards Millennium Development Goal 4. The Lancet.2010;375(9730):1988-2008.
12-Murray CJ, Lopez AD, World Health Organization. The global burden of disease: a comprehensive assessment of mortality and disability from diseases, injuries, and risk factors in 1990 and projected to 2020: summary. World Health Organization.1996.
13-Ebrahimi K, SalariLak Sh, KhademWatan K. Determining the health burden of a heart attack. Journal of Medical School, Tehran University of Medical Sciences.2017; 75(3): 208-2.[Persian]